The age-old phrase “Defense wins championships” is tried and true, but having a capable offense is also just as important. Through 5 weeks of play, we’ve already seen how bad things could be. Today, we’ll be taking a look at what I think of seven of the worst offenses in the NFL and which team has the best opportunity to turn their season around and might actually have a shot at making the playoffs.
NOTE: I’ve left the Denver Broncos, New York Jets, and Chicago Bears off this list. Both the Broncos and the Bears are Top 10 in Points For so far, and the New York Jets are in this weird middle ground for me where if Zach Wilson doesn’t play terribly, he has good offensive pieces to work with and has a fantastic defense that has helped them beat the Bills. He’s been tossed into a team made for Rodgers and expected to be a backup. What can you do about that? None of those offenses are good per se, but I believe they’re still performing better than the teams listed below.
The teams listed have scored fewer than 80 points or are still waiting to win their first game of the season. I’ve also included the Packers as well, who meet neither of these criteria yet seem to fit this scenario perfectly. Besides, who actually knows how good they are anyways?
Pittsburgh Steelers
QB: Kenny Pickett
RBs: Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren
WRs: George Pickens, Calvin Austin, Allen Robinson, Diontae Johnson
TEs: Pat Friermuth, Connor Heyward
OFF: 37% 3rd Down Conv (23rd), 1341 Scrim Yards (25th)
DEF: 110 PA, 11 turnovers (T-2nd)
Remaining Schedule’s SOS: .456, or 9th easiest
The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored the 5th fewest points in the NFL thus far. In Kenny Pickett’s first season as a starter, they’ve averaged a paltry 15.8 points per game and are near the bottom of the league in scrimmage yards and 3rd down conversions. The average time per drive for the Steelers is 2:14 and have only 2 red zone touchdowns in 7 attempts - both league worst marks. Much of the blame is going to OC Matt Canada, whose predictable and vanilla play-calling hasn’t surpassed the 400-yard mark in a game since he was hired in 2021.
Their saving grace? The Steelers Defense. It’s been good since before I was born (probably), and TJ Watt is looking to be a DPOY candidate. Sure, they’ve let up 110 points already, but they already have 17 sacks and have accrued a turnover differential of 5. They’ve kept opposing teams to only 22.0 points per game and the best offenses they have to play the rest of the season include the Seahawks, Ravens, and… who else? Even then, that’s a light load
Cleveland Browns
QB: Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson
RBs: Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong, Kareem Hunt
WRs: Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones
TE: David Njoku
OFF: 32.2% 3rd Down Conv (29th), 1265 Scrim Yards (29th)
DEF: 60 PA, 3 turnovers (T-31st)
Remaining Schedule’s SOS: .484 or 13th easiest
Welcome down to Cleveland Town everyone! Deshaun Watson is still your QB and you’ll like it! The Browns are near the bottom of the league in scrimmage yards and don’t know how to not turnover the ball (Tied-2nd worst). They’re the only team with sub-700 passing yards and their elite RB Nick Chubb is down for the season. 3rd Down Conversions are non-existent and now Deshaun is dealing with a shoulder injury, putting Dorian Thompson-Robinson in as the starter should Watson miss time (with the size of his guaranteed contract, I could definitely see this happen).
On the bright side, they’ve been disciplined, with only 25 offensive penalties in 4 games (Tied-3rd best). And their defense? They’ve allowed the fewest points and yards per game in the entire league. They haven't gotten a lot of turnovers, but who needs those when you can just stop the opposing teams from scoring? Their division is a lot weaker than expected, as the Bengals are shockingly 4th in the division. The Bengals will likely improve, and yes there’s still the Steelers and the Ravens, but those teams all have defined flaws in their offense. You know what can take care of that? The best statistical defense in the league.
Las Vegas Raiders
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Aidan O’Connell
RBs: Josh Jacobs, Zamir White
WRs: Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow
TE: Austin Hooper
OFF: 32.7% 3rd Down Conv (29th), 1,406 Scrim Yards (26th)
DEF: 114 PA, 4 turnovers (T-27th)
Remaining Schedule’s SOS: .475 or 9th easiest
Well would you look at that? I didn’t expect them to win against the Packers on Monday Night, but despite Josh McDaniels best attempts, they couldn’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Was it a pretty game? No. Is this offense amazing? No. They do have a Maxx Crosby on defense, who just never seems to have a bad game. Jakobi Meyers played well opposite Davante Adams during the last game against a decent Packer’s pass D. That being said… I’ve got some major concerns about their stats through 5 weeks. They’re near-bottom of the league in both 3rd down conversions AND scrimmage yards. They’re averaging 15.8 points a game with two of the best players at their positions (Adams and Josh Jacobs). Speaking of Josh Jacobs, what’s up with the running game? The Raiders have called the 8th fewest running plays and the fewest yards by any team with 5 games played. They’re barely averaging 71 rushing YPG! While other teams on this list have a defense that can win them games, the Raiders defense has only forced 4 turnovers so far this year (3 of them coming against the Packers this week).
The Raiders have pieces that know how to play winning football, but similar to the Steelers, I think the biggest thing holding this offense back would be one of the guys coaching it. HC Josh McDaniels’s best record as a coach is 8–8… back when he was the HC of the Denver Broncos in 2008. He was canned the following year. The fact he can’t get this offense going as a former offensive coordinator for the Patriots (from ‘11-’18) is kinda mind boggling. I don’t get it. The Chargers and Chiefs look to have a firm hold on the top of the division, but the Raiders ought to have a better season than the Broncos… right?
New England Patriots
QB: Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe
RBs: Rhamondre Stevenson, Ezekiel Elliott
WRs: Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, DeVante Parker
TE: Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki
OFF: 32.9% 3rd Down Conv (28th), 1437 Scrim Yards (22nd)
DEF: 131 PA, 2 turnovers (32nd)
Remaining Schedule’s SOS: .500 or 14th easiest
These aren’t your dad’s (or your big brother’s) Patriots. They’ve scored a league-worst 55 Points For and are bottom 10 in Points Allowed. Starting QB Mac Jones has been benched mid-game twice already and the best weapon this offense has is… Rhamondre Stevenson? Their passing-and-run games are 19th and 26th best in the league, respectively, and only score on 34.4% of their drives (2nd Worst). I was high on Mac Jones when he entered the league, but now I’m frosty on this one. He’s not gonna get a 2nd contract as a starter in New England.
The good news? Uh… Bill Belichick is still their head coach? Their schedule could be worse, but they still have yet to face Kansas City, Miami, Buffalo twice, and the Steelers. While the Patriots have never been an organization to tank, Bill Belichick the GM has hit many picks the last few seasons. What are the odds they’re in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes? If not him, what about Drake Maye? Can they even develop and draft talent around either of those two to allow them to develop. The Jets have a chance of being better than the Patriots this year. This roster needs to change for the better to be competitive like the days of yesteryear, and I don’t believe that happens during this season.
New York Giants
QB: Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor
RBs: Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida
WRs: Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Parris Campbell
TE: Darren Waller
OFF: 35.6% 3rd Down Conv (26th), 1276 Scrim Yards (28th)
DEF: 153 PA, 3 turnovers (T-31st)
Remaining Schedule’s SOS: .534 or 11th hardest
Man, I thought the Vikings were going to be bigger frauds after the Giants beat them in the Wildcard last season, but boy, was I wrong. At least the Vikings have an offense. The Giants have more points than only the Patriots by this point. Their only win was a comeback win against a Cardinals team that has more fight in it than anybody expected. They’ve gone scoreless almost twice this season if not for a FG against Seattle in week 4. They haven’t been able to prove themselves on 3rd down or in scrimmage yards, plus QB Daniel Jones can’t stay upright. I mean, I’m not going to say he’s elite but he’s been sacked 28 times already! He’s already been sacked more times than he was in 2021 (22 sacks in 11 games), plus he’s now dealing with a neck injury. Saquon Barkley’s now dealing with injury and hasn’t played in a few weeks. The healthiest offensive weapons the Giants have are Darren Waller and… Darius Slayton? The defense has also let up the 4th most points this season.
What’s the bright side? It’s honestly hard to find one here. Jones is locked up through 2026 with $82 million guaranteed while he plays behind a line that forces him to scramble more than Tarkenton. Their defense can’t keep teams out of the red zone, and after this season, will the Giants extend Saquon Barkely who’s on the franchise tag and has now dealt with injuries again? They’re projected to be a top-5 draft pick next season with a lot of holes to fill and can’t really make a play for a top QB prospect. I’d look ahead to the draft to find some hope.
Carolina Panthers
QB: Bryce Young, Andy Dalton
RBs: Miles Sanders, Chuba Hubbard
WRs: Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Terrace Marshall Jr., Jonathan Mingo
TE: Hayden Hurst
OFF: 40.8% 3rd Down Conv (13th), 1472 Scrim Yards (19th)
DEF: 144 PA, 4 turnovers (T-27th)
Remaining Schedule’s SOS: .561 or 6th hardest
The Panthers are the lone team in the NFL without a win. It had to be somebody, it just sucks it had to be you. Don’t worry, Bryce Young hasn’t been terrible… when his team doesn’t let up pressure. Despite what their record says, the two biggest stats I’m looking at today aren’t basement dwelling. Especially for a young QB in a tough situation, seeing the Panthers convert on 3rd down 40.8% (13th) of the time is good to see. They’re also just below-average in scrimmage yards, and I think they had a chance to beat the Vikings earlier this season. While none of their weapons scream “ELITE”, you could do a lot worse than a Sanders-Hubbard running duo and throwing to Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and Hayden Hurst. The NFCS is a lot tougher this year than expected (I was high on the Buccaneers to do decent but still), and their defense has let up the 5th most points this year so far.
I hope they don’t ruin Bryce Young this year and get him some help next year. Thanks to last year’s trade with the Chicago Bears (who are currently projected to have two top-5 picks in 2024), they won’t get a shot until the second round. Find some good offensive linemen, young WR, or defensive stud, maybe trade for a solid veteran or 2nd-contract player, and next year I think the Panthers will get a better shot to see what they truly have. It could be a lot worse. At least you don’t have Mac Jones.
Green Bay Packers
QB: Jordan Love
RBs: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillion, Patrick Taylor?
WRs: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Samori Toure?
TEs: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Josiah Deguara?
OFF: 40.9% 3rd Down Conv (12th), 1408 Scrim Yards (25th)
DEF: 113 PA, 5 turnovers (T-22nd)
Remaining Schedule’s SOS: .397 or tied for easiest (with DET)
I am in a modest amount of pain. That’s okay. This year is a “figure-out-what-we-have” kind of year. We’re hampered by the cap with a who-knows-how-good-he-is QB on a manageable contract. Wasn’t expecting us to be world beaters this year, but damn I want to be one again. For every game Jordan Love has that’s decent, he’s had one where he’s choked up a bit (see at Raiders, vs Detroit). The Packers haven’t been able to get going in the first half and are 25th in the league in scrimmage yards. Their defense has been a solid enough unit to keep them in games and (with the exception of the game against the division-leading Detroit Lions) they’ve been able to keep every team this year under 20 points. The Packers are 12th in 3rd down conversions with a 1st year starting quarterback, which I believe is a good indicator for younger QBs.
The good news? The entire team is young. They only have 3 players over the age of 30, and LT David Bakhtiari is done for the season. The oldest player on the offense is 28-year old Aaron Jones, who's been dealing with injury since week 1 and has only 14 carries in 2 games. The most experienced wide receivers? Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure. Heck, most of the weapons I've listed are maybes at best. Aside from the Packers faithful, who could even name Josiah Deguara or Patrick Taylor? This is their second year in the league. Despite their best offensive weapon in Jones being out, they've kept most of their scores close.
Has Jordan Love been perfect? Absolutely not (55.6% completion rating and 8:6 TD/INT ratio… yikes). Is he Aaron Rodgers? Heck no! He’s been in the league for 3 years, this is his first year starting, AND he’s turning 25 in November. They’ve got the whole year to see what they’re really made of. The Lions are the team to beat in the NFCN, and the Packers have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. The Lions look like they’ll take the division this year, but the Packers aren’t out of it yet. Maybe I’m a homer, but screw that. Still doesn't make the pain go away, but I’m choosing to Hope Dangerously. I’m not expecting playoffs, but I’m expecting growth here.
Odds I temper my hope by January 8th with copious amounts of Spotted Cow?: 4.12%
Who’s Most Likely to Turn Their Season Around?
- Pittsburgh Steelers - Easiest remaining schedule in their division, biggest thing holding them back is OC, could win division if things keep going their way. That, and a TJ Watt DPOY campaign helps quite a bit too. Do enough to not lose on offense (or maybe even fire Matt Canada) and you could win the AFCN
- Cleveland Browns - Their Defense is legit and might just carry them to the wildcard or win the division. Gotta survive not having Chubb, but their O-Line makes every RB look good. Find ways to put more points on the board, and you could make a play for the division. If not for the discrepancy in head coach (I prefer Tomlin over Stefanski), this team would be ranked no. 1
- Packers - Currently easiest schedule in the NFL for rest of year, handicapped this year by cap but are competitive enough in their games. This year was a whole lot of “What do they actually have?” and ~10% of their cap is gone every game the rest of this season due to Bakhtiari’s injury. How good is their division really? Outside of the Lions... yeah. Their schedule is a best-case scenario to see what they actually have. Growing pains for the season, but they’ll grow from it and expectations ought to reset.
- Raiders - Easy-ish schedule, has the best QB on paper out of this group but needs to stay healthy, if Josh McDaniels can get his poop in a group… I mean he has Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. Just don’t be dumb McDaniels. It’s not that hard. We all remember that FG attempt late last week.
- Panthers - Here by default. Tough division b/c of early records and has a rookie QB with a bad OLine. I think it could be much worse, even though their defense has given up the most points in this group. At least I have hope for Bryce Young. David Tepper, don't ruin him please.
- Patriots - I genuinely have no idea how this offense could make a drastic improvement. Caleb Williams or Drake Maye is next year’s answer at this rate. Defense isn’t as dominant and they have the Dolphins and Bills as the two best teams in their division. Not great, Bob, not great.
- Giants - Who else could they beat this year? Easiest remaining games are Pats, Raiders, and NYJ. I trust a Zach Wilson run offense to compete more than whatever the heck the Giants have right now. The Jets are the better NY team this year. The bar was low, but the Giants still won’t be able to cross it. If not for Jones’s guaranteed contract situation, they’d be ranked 6th.
